S&P 500 down August/down September history suggests robust Q4 performance

Going back to 1930 (85 years, excluding 2015), the combination of a down August and a down September has occurred 18 times (21.2% of all years). Of those 18 past years, the following October was up 11 times and down 7 with an average gain of 1.82%. Fourth quarters in those same years have an even better record, up 14 and down 4. The last losing Q4 was in 1977. Recently, the last three down August/down Septembers in 1999, 2001 and 2011 were followed by double-digit gains in the fourth quarter. 1999 and 2011 were presidential pre-election years, just like this year.

Fuente: jeffhirsch.tumblr.com